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Macro by Mark

Global Economic Data, Empirical Models, and Macro Theory
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Public data from government agencies and multilateral statistical releases, anchored in official sources

© 2026 Mark Jayson Nation

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Theory-Based Models

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Permanent Income Hypothesis
Model

Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis: consumption depends on permanent income, not current income. C = k * Y_P, where permanent income Y_P is an adaptive-expectations weighted average of current and past income.

Compare

This model uses static comparative statics -- no genuine time axis exists.

Shock presets

Transitory income windfall

Current income jumps while past income stays the same. Only part of the windfall feeds into permanent income, so consumption rises modestly.

Permanent income raise

Both current and past income rise together, signaling a permanent shift. Consumption responds nearly one-for-one.

Faster expectation updating

Households weight current income more heavily when forming permanent-income estimates, making consumption more volatile.

Controls

Diagram, readouts, and summary update with each change.

Consumption

Expectations

Income

Impact summary

Current consumption

Consumption

88.2

Permanent income

98.0

Transitory income

2.0

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