Macroeconomic model reference

Semi-structural core Model

A core block of estimated macro equations -- output, inflation, labor, policy -- wired together without full DSGE micro-foundations.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

Semi-structural core sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the Semi-structural core page.

First-party releases, central-bank materials, official statistical agencies, and institutional documents.

[S1] International Monetary Fund
Berg, Karam, and Laxton (2006) -- IMF FPAS framework: codified the semi-structural approach as a standard forecasting and policy analysis system for central banks
Primary - International Monetary Fund
[S2] International Monetary Fund
Carabenciov et al. (2008) -- Global Projection Model: multi-country semi-structural model used for the IMF's World Economic Outlook projections
Primary - International Monetary Fund
[S3] Federal Reserve
Laubach and Williams (2003) -- time-varying r* estimation using a semi-structural framework with Kalman filter, widely adopted by the Federal Reserve
Primary - Federal Reserve

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

[S4] Reference
Benes et al. (2010) -- Czech National Bank's g3 model: open-economy semi-structural core with financial conditions index and risk premium dynamics
Reference
[S5] Reference
Blanchard and Kahn (1980) -- solution method for linear rational expectations models, required for forward-looking semi-structural systems
Reference

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