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IndicatorsNowcasting & Leading IndicatorsSahm Rule Recession Indicator

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

United States·Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)·Monthly·Percentage Points
VerifiedStored official dataStale dataLoaded 23h agoDataset exceptions

Source:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)·SAHMREALTIME

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator in United States was 0.13 on April 1, 2026, lower by 0.07 (-35.0%) from the prior observation. Charted from monthly observations in percentage points.

Series variants

Source and measurement

1 switchable
Unit · Percentcurrent2 options
IndexPercent
Latest0.13%
MoM-35.00%
YoY-51.85%
10Y Avg0.57%
Latest observationApril 1, 2026
Model surprise+0.03%

Timeframe

Value transform

Version overlay

Chart appearance

Overlays & outputNBER bandsAuto Y
Axis & export

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator time series chart. Showing observations from December 1959 to April 2026. Latest value 0.13.

Min-0.37%
Mean0.42%
Max9.50%
Latest observationApril 1, 2026

Source evidence

Tier 1 - criticalU.S. macro backbone via St. Louis Fed; revision/vintage capable.Action: deepen nowExpected coverage: 800,000 series.
Source noteProvider health
SourceFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
FRED
Native keyProvider-native identifier used to reconcile this country/provider series.
SAHMREALTIME
FreshnessDisplayed as stored official data.The provider-backed series is outside its expected freshness window, so this view should be refreshed before production use.Fetched: May 25, 2026.Latest observation flag: Preliminary.
Stored · 2026-04-01
HistoryPoint-in-time data via the FRED ALFRED endpoint. Each request returns the values as they were published on the supplied vintage date.Vintage history is derived from FRED ALFRED's realtime_start/realtime_end query parameters.
Source-native vintage
ReuseCommercial use: dataset specific.Redistribution: review required.Do not treat FRED as an automatically reusable commercial-display source. Prefer direct BEA, BLS, Census, FRB, Treasury, and EIA feeds where possible.Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (SAHMREALTIME). Accessed 2026-05-25. Underlying-source rights may differ.
Dataset exceptions

Research notes

82 · Acceptable
ComparabilityAggregator is not the statistical authority: Use the source agency, source code, and methodology link when citing or reconciling with official releases.Real, nominal, and chain measures are not interchangeable: Use real growth for cycle analysis, nominal levels for revenue/size questions, and PPP or per-capita variants for welfare comparisons.Seasonal-adjustment status needs attention: Prefer same-adjustment comparisons, or transform to year-over-year changes before cross-series comparison.
3 notes
QualitySource authority: 82/100. Aggregator source: useful access layer, but official methodology remains with the originating agency.Methodology completeness: 100/100. 100% of core provider, geography, unit, frequency, citation, and revision fields are populated.Timeliness and freshness: 90/100. 796 observations available; latest observation 2026-04-01; platform fetch 2026-05-25T17:21:40.768Z; release status none; data status liveRevision and vintage depth: 100/100. Point-in-time data via the FRED ALFRED endpoint. Each request returns the values as they were published on the supplied vintage date.
4/6 strong
CitationSahm Rule Recession Indicator (FRED (St. Louis Fed): SAHMREALTIME, United States, retrieved May 26, 2026)
Retrieved May 26, 2026

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Browse all Nowcasting & Leading Indicators indicatorsAdjacent concepts across providers and countries.View United States macro coverageEvery curated indicator for this country.View FRED catalogFilter the discovery catalog by this provider.
Series details, provenance, and revision toolsMetadata, release notes, revision history, and related series.

Series details

SourceFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
CategoryNowcasting & Leading Indicators
FrequencyMonthly
UnitPercentage Points
Latest observationApril 1, 2026
Platform last fetchMay 25, 2026
Transformslevel, mom
About this series

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator