ETS (exponential smoothing) Model

Reference sources

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

1. [S1] Reference

   Holt (1957) -- Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages (ONR Research Memorandum 52). Introduced trend-corrected exponential smoothing.

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2. [S2] Reference

   Winters (1960) -- Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages (Management Science). Added the seasonal component to create the Holt-Winters method.

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3. [S3] Reference

   Hyndman, Koehler, Snyder, and Gahber (2002) -- A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods (International Journal of Forecasting). The foundational paper for the ETS taxonomy and automatic selection.

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4. [S4] Reference

   Gardner and McKenzie (1985) -- Forecasting trends in time series (Management Science). Introduced the damped trend, which became one of the most successful forecasting modifications ever proposed.

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5. [S5] Reference

   Hyndman, Koehler, Ord, and Snyder (2008) -- Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach (Springer). The comprehensive monograph covering all 30 ETS models.

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