Macroeconomic model reference

Macroeconometric system Model

Larger central-bank-style macroeconometric forecasting systems built around behavioral equations and policy reaction functions.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

Macroeconometric system sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the Macroeconometric system page.

First-party releases, central-bank materials, official statistical agencies, and institutional documents.

[S1] Federal Reserve
Brayton and Tinsley (1996) -- FRB/US model documentation: the Federal Reserve's workhorse model, successor to MPS
Primary - Federal Reserve

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

[S2] Reference
Tinbergen (1939) -- first economy-wide macroeconometric model, estimated for the US for the League of Nations
Reference
[S3] Reference
Klein and Goldberger (1955) -- Klein-Goldberger model, pioneered simultaneous-equation estimation at Cowles Commission
Reference
[S4] Reference
Fair (1984, updated through 2020s) -- Fair model: transparent multicountry macroeconometric system with published code and data, used for teaching and research
Reference
[S5] Reference
Sims (1980) -- 'Macroeconomics and Reality': critique of identifying restrictions in simultaneous equations, catalyzed the VAR revolution
Reference

Open the concept, data series, policy setting, or neighboring model that anchors this page.