Macroeconomic model reference

Kalman filter Model

Recursive state estimator that updates latent macro states as each noisy observation arrives.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

Kalman filter sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the Kalman filter page.

References

Reference sources

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

  1. [S1] Reference

    Kalman (1960) derived the optimal linear recursive filter for Gaussian state-space models.

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  2. [S2] Reference

    Rauch, Tung, and Striebel (1965) developed the fixed-interval smoother (backward pass after the forward filter).

    Reference

  3. [S3] Reference

    Harvey (1989) brought the Kalman filter into mainstream econometrics, showing how UCMs, ARIMA, and structural time-series models all fit the state-space framework.

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  4. [S4] Reference

    Hamilton (1994, Chapter 13) provided a textbook treatment connecting the Kalman filter to time-series econometrics.

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  5. [S5] Reference

    Durbin and Koopman (2012) gave a comprehensive treatment of state-space methods including diffuse initialization, missing data, and simulation smoothing.

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  6. [S6] Reference

    Anderson and Moore (1979) established the control-theoretic foundations: observability, controllability, and filter convergence.

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  7. [S7] Reference

    De Jong (1991) developed the diffuse Kalman filter for non-stationary initial conditions.

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