Macroeconomic model reference

Bridge equations Model

Simple regressions that bridge from monthly indicators to a quarterly target like GDP, refreshed as each indicator lands.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

Bridge equations sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the Bridge equations page.

First-party releases, central-bank materials, official statistical agencies, and institutional documents.

[S1] European Central Bank
Runstler and Sedillot (2003) 'Short-term Estimates of Euro Area Real GDP by Means of Monthly Data': ECB staff paper establishing the bridge equation framework for euro area nowcasting.
Primary - European Central Bank

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

[S2] Reference
Baffigi, Golinelli, and Parigi (2004) 'Bridge Models to Forecast the Euro Area GDP': early systematic comparison of bridge equation specifications for the euro area.
Reference
[S3] Reference
Bok, Caratelli, Giannone, Sbordone, and Tambalotti (2018) 'Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data': documents the New York Fed's nowcasting model combining bridge equations with dynamic factor structure.
Reference
[S4] Reference
Banbura, Giannone, Modugno, and Reichlin (2013) 'Now-casting and the Real-Time Data Flow': comprehensive survey placing bridge equations within the broader nowcasting literature.
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[S5] Reference
Drechsel and Scheufele (2012) 'The Performance of Short-term Forecasts of the German Economy Before and During the 2008/2009 Recession': evaluates bridge equations versus factor models in real-time, finding bridge equations more robust during the crisis.
Reference

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