Macroeconomic model reference

TVP-VAR Model

Time-varying-parameter VAR that lets transmission coefficients and shock effects drift across samples.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

TVP-VAR sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the TVP-VAR page.

References

Reference sources

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

  1. [S1] Reference

    Primiceri (2005) -- canonical TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility and triangular factorization

    Reference

  2. [S2] Reference

    Cogley and Sargent (2005) -- drifting coefficients without time-varying A_t; US inflation persistence

    Reference

  3. [S3] Reference

    Carter and Kohn (1994) -- forward-filtering, backward-sampling simulation smoother for Gaussian state-space models

    Reference

  4. [S4] Reference

    Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) -- mixture-of-normals approximation for stochastic volatility

    Reference

  5. [S5] Reference

    Koop and Korobilis (2013) -- computationally light TVP-VAR via forgetting factors

    Reference

  6. [S6] Reference

    D'Agostino, Gambetti, and Giannone (2013) -- forecasting with TVP-VARs

    Reference

  7. [S7] Reference

    Chan and Eisenstat (2018) -- equation-by-equation estimation for large TVP-VARs

    Reference

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