Data-Driven Models
Data-Driven Models
Empirical forecasting models · Sources
Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the Smooth transition regression page.
Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.
[S1] Reference
Granger and Terasvirta (1993) introduced the STR framework and the specification cycle (test, specify, estimate, evaluate).
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[S2] Reference
Terasvirta (1994) developed the LM-type linearity test based on Taylor expansion and the LSTAR vs ESTAR selection procedure.
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[S3] Reference
Luukkonen, Saikkonen, and Terasvirta (1988) provided the theoretical foundation for testing linearity against STR alternatives.
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[S4] Reference
van Dijk, Terasvirta, and Franses (2002) surveyed the STR literature and provided guidelines for practical implementation.
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[S5] Reference
Eitrheim and Terasvirta (1996) developed misspecification tests for estimated STR models (no remaining nonlinearity, no ARCH, parameter constancy).
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[S6] Reference
Michael, Nobay, and Peel (1997) applied ESTAR to real exchange rates and PPP, establishing the transaction-cost interpretation.
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[S7] Reference
Gonzalez, Terasvirta, and van Dijk (2005) extended the framework to panel data with heterogeneous transition parameters.
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