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Macroeconomic model reference

Markov-switching VAR Model

Regime-switching macro system where latent states govern recession and expansion dynamics through transition probabilities.

Empirical forecasting models · Derivation

Markov-switching VAR estimation: assumptions and equations

Trace the Markov-switching VAR estimation through assumptions, notation, equations, and failure cases.

Macro by Mark

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Concepts

Output and incomeBusiness cyclesPrices and inflationReal and nominal

Indicators

Real GDPgdp.realHeadline CPIprices.cpi.headlineUnemployment ratelabor.unemployment.ratePolicy ratemoney.policy_rate

Policy

Monetary policyFiscal policy

Nearby models

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