Macroeconomic model reference

LSTM Model

Recurrent neural network architecture with gates that can retain or forget information across long macro sequences.

Empirical forecasting models · Sources

LSTM sources, papers, and evidence trail

Primary papers, model variants, source notes, and review signals behind the LSTM page.

References

Reference sources

Reference material used for orientation; read primary and academic sources first when claims conflict.

  1. [S1] Reference

    Hochreiter and Schmidhuber (1997) -- Long short-term memory. Introduced the gated cell architecture solving the vanishing gradient problem.

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  2. [S2] Reference

    Gers, Schmidhuber, and Cummins (2000) -- Learning to forget: continual prediction with LSTM. Added the forget gate, which was not in the original 1997 architecture.

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  3. [S3] Reference

    Graves (2013) -- Generating sequences with recurrent neural networks. Extended LSTMs with deep stacking and demonstrated sequence generation capabilities.

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  4. [S4] Reference

    Sutskever, Vinyals, and Le (2014) -- Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks. Established the encoder-decoder LSTM architecture for sequence-to-sequence tasks.

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  5. [S5] Reference

    Gal and Ghahramani (2016) -- A theoretically grounded application of dropout in recurrent neural networks. Introduced variational dropout for LSTMs with the same mask at each time step.

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  6. [S6] Reference

    Salinas, Flunkert, Gasthaus, and Januschowski (2020) -- DeepAR: probabilistic forecasting with autoregressive recurrent networks. LSTM-based probabilistic time-series forecasting at scale.

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  7. [S7] Reference

    Makridakis, Spiliotis, and Assimakopoulos (2018) -- Statistical and machine learning forecasting methods: concerns and ways forward. M4 competition results showing LSTM performance relative to statistical methods.

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