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Macro by Mark

Global Economic Data, Empirical Models, and Macro Theory
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Public data from government agencies and multilateral statistical releases, anchored in official sources

© 2026 Mark Jayson Nation

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Empirical · Model class

Machine learning / AI forecasting

Penalized and learning-based forecasters that scale beyond classical time-series families when there are many features or nonlinear interactions.

Live/Empirical lab supportEmpirical classEmpirical familyModels help

What this class is for

When to reach for machine learning / ai forecasting

Use this class when you have many candidate predictors and want shrinkage, regularization, or ensembling rather than a single classical specification.

Live/Empirical lab support

Models in this class

Machine learning / AI forecasting models

Each model below has its own reference page with overview, graph, proof, and comparison material.

Machine learning / AI forecastingLive/Empirical lab support

Ridge regression

L2-penalized linear regression -- shrinks coefficients toward zero to stabilize forecasts when predictors are many or collinear.

Best for: Macro forecasting with many candidate predictors where ordinary least squares overfits and needs shrinkage.

Open Ridge regression reference
Machine learning / AI forecastingGuided/Guided setup

LASSO

L1-penalized linear regression -- drives some coefficients to zero, doing variable selection inside the fit.

Best for: Wide predictor sets where you want the model to choose a sparse subset of features instead of using all of them.

Open LASSO reference
Machine learning / AI forecastingLive/Empirical lab support

Forecast ensemble

Combination of several base forecasters -- simple averages, weighted blends, or stacking -- to reduce single-model risk.

Best for: When no single model is reliably best and combining several produces a steadier out-of-sample read.

Open Forecast ensemble reference

Browse subgroups

Fifth-layer subgroups in this class

These subgroups split machine learning / ai forecasting into smaller reference pages. Coverage notes are honest about where standalone model pages exist and where the subgroup is currently a placeholder.

Penalized linear models2 modelsTree-based modelsPlaceholderKernel and margin methodsPlaceholderNeural network modelsPlaceholderForecast combination1 model

Related classes

Nearby empirical classes

These classes sit next to machine learning / ai forecasting in the empirical family and are worth reading next.

Univariate time-seriesMultivariate time-series