Glossaire

A simulation built from many interacting agents whose local rules generate macro outcomes.

The total demand for goods and services in the economy at a given overall price level.

The total amount of goods and services firms are willing to produce at a given overall price level.

Converting a monthly or quarterly pace into an annual rate so it is easier to compare with other annualized series.

A time-series forecasting family built around autoregressive, differencing, and moving-average components.

A widely watched wage measure from the monthly employment report.

The stock of assets, liabilities, and net worth that shapes how exposed a borrower, lender, firm, or household is to stress.

The reference year used to anchor an index or real-value calculation.

A central forecast path built from current data and model assumptions before extra scenarios are applied.

A simple comparison model used to judge whether a more complex model is actually adding value.

A market-implied inflation measure inferred from the gap between nominal Treasury yields and inflation-protected yields.

The gap between government revenue and spending over a period, often discussed as a deficit or surplus.

The U.S. statistical agency responsible for GDP, income, spending, and many national accounts measures.

The U.S. statistical agency responsible for CPI, payrolls, unemployment, producer prices, and related labor-market data.

New business filings that can act as an early read on entrepreneurial activity and future business formation.

The recurring pattern of expansion, slowdown, recession, and recovery in overall economic activity.

Setting model parameters to reference values or stylized facts rather than estimating every one directly from data.

The share of productive capacity currently being used, often watched as a pressure or slowdown signal.

The process of building up machines, structures, software, and other productive assets over time.

Growth in capital per worker, which can raise labor productivity and output.

The U.S. statistical agency that publishes data on population, housing, construction, retail trade, and business formation, among other topics.

A long-run relationship that ties nonstationary series together even when they move separately in the short run.

Assets pledged against borrowing; when collateral values fall, financing can tighten quickly.

Spending on private and public construction projects, often used as a read on building activity and demand.

A BLS price index tracking the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services.

A survey-based read on how households feel about current conditions and the outlook.

Household spending on goods and services.

An inflation measure that strips out more volatile components to show the underlying trend.

The Federal Reserve's preferred broad core inflation measure, built from the PCE price index excluding food and energy.

Policy that leans against the cycle by supporting activity in downturns or cooling it in booms.

A model-based path showing what the economy might have looked like under different shocks, rules, or assumptions.

The extra yield investors demand for bearing default or funding risk over a safer benchmark.

A decline in private spending or investment associated with stronger government borrowing or demand pressure.

An outright decline in the general price level.

Inflation pressure that emerges when demand runs ahead of the economy's ability to supply goods and services.

A slowdown in the rate of inflation, not outright falling prices.

A structural macro model with explicit behavior, equilibrium conditions, shocks, and policy rules.

The share of the population that is employed.

The U.S. agency that publishes official energy production, consumption, and pricing data.

A forecasting family that models level, trend, and seasonal structure directly.

The price of one currency in terms of another currency.

A phase of the cycle when output, income, and employment are generally rising.

The overnight policy rate targeted by the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve committee that sets the broad stance of U.S. monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank system responsible for monetary policy, financial stability, and related economic data releases.

A St. Louis Fed service that organizes economic time series and release metadata from many public sources.

Spending that goes to final users rather than into inventories or intermediate production.

A broad read on rates, spreads, asset prices, lending conditions, and risk appetite.

The amount total output changes after government spending or taxes change.

Government spending and taxation decisions that affect demand, incentives, and public borrowing.

Central-bank communication about the future path of policy meant to influence current financial conditions.

The application interface that allows software to search FRED series, release dates, and observations programmatically.

How often a series is observed, such as daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annual.

Income earned from production, including wages, profits, rent, and taxes less subsidies.

The total value of goods and services produced within a country over a period of time.

The Federal Reserve's statistical release for foreign exchange rates and selected international interest rates.

A sharp slowdown or recession that follows a tightening cycle or other macro adjustment.

Inflation measured using the full price index, including volatile categories such as food and energy.

A period kept out of the fit so forecast performance can be checked on data the model did not train on.

A labor input measure that can move before or alongside payroll counts.

The count of new privately owned housing units that begin construction, often used as a cyclical housing read.

The path a model variable follows after a particular shock.

A normalized level series built around a chosen base period rather than a direct dollar or quantity level.

An index tracking output in manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

A sustained rise in the overall price level.

What households, firms, and markets think future inflation will be, which can influence current pricing and wage setting.

New filings for unemployment insurance. Weekly, so it moves faster than most labor data.

The part of the business cycle shaped by stock-building and stock-drawdown decisions by firms.

Spending on productive capital, structures, equipment, software, or inventories.

Available positions firms are actively trying to fill, often read as a labor-demand signal.

The willingness of firms to hire workers at current wages and expected sales conditions.

The share of the population that is working or actively looking for work.

A series that tends to move ahead of the broader economy and can hint at a coming turn in the cycle.

The extent to which borrowing finances assets or spending.

How easily assets can be traded or financing can be obtained without large price disruption.

The horizon where capacity, productivity, demographics, and institutions matter more than short-run frictions.

The study of economy-wide output, inflation, employment, finance, policy, and how shocks move through them together.

A regime model that allows the economy to move between different states with transition probabilities.

Central-bank actions that influence interest rates, financial conditions, and the broader economy.

The change from one month to the next.

An estimate of the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation.

The accounting framework that organizes GDP, income, spending, saving, and related macro aggregates.

Exports minus imports, the external demand contribution inside GDP.

A DSGE family that brings sticky prices, policy rules, and expectations into one structural system.

GDP measured at current prices, before adjusting for inflation.

Slow adjustment in prices or wages that lets shocks have real short-run effects.

A variable measured in current prices, without adjusting for inflation.

The monthly count of jobs on employer payrolls outside the farm sector.

Estimating the current state of the economy before official releases are complete.

One dated value inside a time series.

The difference between actual output and an estimate of potential output.

A BEA price index built from household consumption in the national accounts, with weights that change over time.

A framework linking inflation pressure to slack, labor-market tightness, or the output gap.

The economy's longer-run growth pace once temporary cyclical forces are stripped away.

The level of output the economy can sustain without persistent inflation pressure.

A parameter belief or reference distribution specified before the estimation step updates it with data.

A probability model often used for recession-risk or state-transition classification.

A BLS price index tracking prices received by producers.

How much output can be produced from a given mix of labor, capital, and know-how.

The quarterly change expressed at an annual rate.

The share of workers voluntarily leaving jobs, often used as a read on labor-market confidence and tightness.

A DSGE benchmark that emphasizes real shocks, flexible prices, and intertemporal adjustment.

Production, spending, hiring, income, and capacity outside the narrower financial-market layer.

GDP adjusted for inflation so it tracks changes in real output more clearly.

A variable adjusted for inflation so it reflects quantities or purchasing power more clearly.

A broad decline in economic activity that usually shows up in output, employment, income, and spending.

A change in the underlying behavior of the economy or series, such as moving from expansion to recession.

A price move concentrated in one part of the economy, such as energy, food, or shipping, rather than a broad inflation shift.

A schedule of upcoming economic releases and events.

The scheduled publication date and time for an economic release.

The period around a scheduled release when the timing of fresh data matters most for interpretation and nowcasting.

A measure of spending at retail businesses, often used as a timely read on household demand.

A change to previously published data after new information or updated methods arrive.

The willingness of investors or lenders to take on risk.

An explicit alternative path created by changing assumptions, shocks, or policy settings.

A statistical adjustment that removes regular calendar patterns so the underlying trend is easier to see.

A seasonally adjusted flow or pace expressed as if that rate continued for a full year.

A sequence of observations over time for one variable.

A change in conditions, policy, expectations, or prices that pushes the economy away from its prior path.

The horizon where adjustment frictions, policy timing, and demand conditions can move the economy away from its longer-run path.

Unused capacity in the labor market, such as unemployment, underemployment, or weak participation.

A slowdown that cools inflation or excess demand without tipping the economy into a deep recession.

A period when inflation stays elevated while growth weakens and labor-market conditions soften.

A move into a different macro state, such as a recession-risk regime or a more persistent inflation regime.

The reference equilibrium or benchmark level around which many macro models are organized.

A disruption to production costs, availability, or capacity that changes prices and output together.

A simple policy rule that links the interest-rate response to inflation and the output gap.

The extra yield investors require for holding longer-term bonds over expected short rates.

The part of output growth not directly explained by measured labor and capital inputs.

The chain through which a shock or policy move spreads into output, prices, jobs, credit, and expectations.

The U.S. Treasury Department and its related yield, debt, and financing data releases used across macro and market work.

The slower-moving pace of expansion consistent with longer-run productivity and labor-force fundamentals.

Workers employed less than they want, or in positions that do not fully use their labor.

The share of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

Open roles firms are trying to fill.

A multivariate forecasting model in which each variable depends on its own past and the past of the other variables.

A multivariate model for cointegrated series that keeps short-run changes tied to a long-run equilibrium.

A snapshot of what the data looked like at a particular point in time, including the revisions known then.

The pace at which wages are rising over time.

The change from the same period one year earlier.

The relationship between interest rates and maturity across Treasury securities.