The largest Arab economy, the world's leading crude exporter, with the riyal pegged to the US dollar and a strategic anchor role inside OPEC+ — pivoting under Vision 2030 from oil rents toward diversified industry, tourism, and a sovereign-wealth-fund-led non-oil economy.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia covers most of the Arabian Peninsula and is the largest country in the Middle East. The macro map is built around three load-bearing engines: Saudi Aramco's upstream oil business, the Public Investment Fund's strategic asset book, and a still-emerging non-oil economy that runs through Riyadh services, Eastern Province petrochemicals, the Hajj-and-Umrah pilgrim economy in Mecca and Medina, and the Vision 2030 giga-projects on the Red Sea and at NEOM. Read Saudi Arabia through four prices: Brent crude, the US dollar (the riyal is pegged at ≈ 3.75), the SAMA Repo Rate, and the cost of public-sector hiring relative to private-sector Saudi-citizen hiring under the Saudization quota system. Then ask how Vision 2030 spending, OPEC+ choices, and demographic mix turn those prices into wages, jobs, and deficits.
Oil depth concentrated in the Eastern Province. Saudi Aramco operates the world's largest single-source oil reserves and is the system's fiscal spine; crude exports remain the dominant source of foreign-exchange earnings, and Aramco's dividend stream funds the central government and the Public Investment Fund. That depth supplies the buffer that defends the riyal-dollar peg and finances Vision 2030 S1,S8,S12.
Public Investment Fund as the diversification engine. PIF holds a strategic equity book of ≈ 925 billion US dollars in 2024 with a 2030 target near ≈ 2 trillion US dollars. PIF is simultaneously a sovereign-wealth fund, a domestic development institution, and a holding company for giga-projects (NEOM, The Line, Trojena, Sindalah, Diriyah, the Red Sea Project, Qiddiya), Saudi-listed champions, and global strategic stakes S7,S9.
Dollar peg as imported monetary policy. The riyal is fixed at roughly 3.75 to the US dollar (in place since 1986) and SAMA follows the Federal Reserve's policy-rate path. That makes US monetary policy a domestic financial-conditions variable for bank credit, mortgage finance, and capital flows; SAMA held the Repo Rate at 5.00 percent on 29 April 2026 to mirror the FOMC stance S1.
Saudization (Nitaqat) and a labor-mix in transition. The labor force is split between Saudi citizens (concentrated in the public sector and quota-protected private-sector roles) and ≈ 13 million expatriate workers (concentrated in private-sector services, construction, and domestic work). Vision 2030 targets a higher Saudi-citizen share of private employment through Nitaqat quotas, sectoral feminization, and skills programs S2,S9.
Religious sovereignty as institutional bedrock. Custodianship of the Two Holy Mosques (Mecca and Medina) is a foundational source of legitimacy for the monarchy and shapes domestic law, tourism strategy, and foreign policy. The Hajj and Umrah portfolio is both a sovereign mission and a structural revenue stream that the Vision 2030 plan treats as a non-oil growth pillar S5,S14.
SAMA estimated 2025 real GDP growth near 1.3 percent, weighed down by voluntary OPEC+ output cuts, while non-oil growth held at ≈ 4.5 percent on Vision 2030 capex, services demand, and tourism inflows. The reader should separate the oil-cycle GDP figure from the non-oil run rate because they tell different stories about the diversification trajectory S1,S11.
The riyal's dollar peg makes US rates part of local financial conditions. SAMA held the Repo Rate at 5.00 percent on 29 April 2026, mirroring the Federal Reserve. Global dollar liquidity is therefore a domestic mortgage-finance, bank-credit, and capital-flow variable, and the cost of defending the peg rises when oil revenue falls below the fiscal break-even price S1,S11.
Inflation looked contained in 2025 near 2 percent, anchored by the peg, broad subsidies on energy and water, and a strong import basket. Composition still matters: rents in Riyadh and Jeddah and education and healthcare service prices have risen faster than the headline basket, while VAT was tripled from 5 to 15 percent in July 2020 and has since been part of the price level S1,S11.
Continue with the data
The indicator chapter is the live snapshot. Start with oil output and prices, then read non-oil GDP, then labor, then external balance and finance. Use the indicator topic links to walk down from canonical indicators into the underlying provider series.
Cookies bei Macro by Mark.Wir verwenden notwendige Cookies für Anmeldung, Sprache und Sicherheit. Optionale Analysen helfen uns, das Produkt zu verbessern. Lesen Sie unsere Cookie-Richtlinie.