Data-Driven Models
Data-Driven Models
Search the live forecast registry for macro series that can move into the ARIMA baseline flow now.
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8 matchesReal GDP
BEAquarterlyGrowthQuarterly real GDP baseline suitable for slow-moving growth projections.
Core PCE
BEAmonthlyPrices & InflationMonthly core PCE price index for persistent inflation baselines.
Headline CPI
FREDmonthlyPrices & InflationHeadline CPI baseline for broad consumer inflation tracking.
Unemployment rate
FREDmonthlyLabor MarketMonthly unemployment rate baseline for labor-market drift.
Nonfarm payrolls
FREDmonthlyLabor MarketMonthly payrolls baseline for labor momentum and release monitoring.
Retail sales
CENSUSmonthlyGrowthMonthly consumer demand baseline for near-term spending trends.
Construction spending
CENSUSmonthlyGrowthMonthly construction baseline for fixed-investment and housing-adjacent demand.
Business applications
CENSUSmonthlyNowcasting & Leading IndicatorsMonthly business formation baseline for leading growth and entrepreneurship signals.